EDG
ELECTION DATA GUY
2026 FEDERAL ELECTION MODEL
LIVE DATA
EDG FEDERAL ELECTION MODEL
2026 U.S. SENATE FORECAST
Projected control of the United States Senate
based on the current EDG model.
Democratic
—
Projected seats
Republican
—
Projected seats
Independent
2
Existing seats
Uncalled
—
Model races
LOADING MODEL…
REP
Tilt
Lean
Likely
Safe
DEM
Tilt
Lean
Likely
Safe
Tossup
SENATE MODEL
Rating determined by the absolute difference
between the Democratic and Republican model
midpoints.
TOSSUP
Under 2 percentage points
TILT
2% to under 5%
LEAN
5% to under 7.5%
LIKELY
7.5% to 12.5%
SAFE
Over 12.5%
MODEL UPDATE
—
EDG FEDERAL ELECTION MODEL
2026 U.S. HOUSE FORECAST
Congressional district-level projections
from the current EDG model.
Democratic
—
Modelled districts
Republican
—
Modelled districts
Tossup
—
Modelled districts
Modelled
—
Of 435 House seats
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Select any district to view the current EDG
model rating.
NO STATES OR DISTRICTS MATCH YOUR SEARCH.
REP
Tilt
Lean
Likely
Safe
DEM
Tilt
Lean
Likely
Safe
Tossup
No model data
HOUSE MODEL
Each district is rated directly from the
Republican versus Democratic percentage in
the EDG spreadsheet.
SPREADSHEET FORMAT
H1 Republican % followed by Democratic %,
then H2, H3 and so on.
TOSSUP
Under 2 percentage points
TILT
2% to under 5%
LEAN
5% to under 7.5%
LIKELY
7.5% to 12.5%
SAFE
Over 12.5%