I started EDG back in 2024, with the intention of developing a predictive analysis tool to project the outcome of any major USA election that utilises the Early Vote system.
I built the model, following and website myself but the drive to continue doing this comes from the interactions I have had with you all.
The model is growing with each election cycle, and will continue to improve upon accuracy and efficiency with every test I put it through.
Hi, I’m Harry.
Election Data Guy (EDG) is an independent election forecasting project tracking early voting, mail voting and turnout to predict and project the outcome of election within the USA.
The model takes historical early vote data and compares it with the latest figures, often able to be analysed to the day the figures came in on, to provide a range of percentages for each party taking part in the election.
Historically, the model was 100% accurate in 2025 with its state calls and in 2024 it was over 80% accurate in the states it measured.
Some states do not allow the data to be released, or even allow early voting and as such those are unable to be forecast.
What is EDG
The Model
What began as a passion project has evolved into something more. Utilising the historic voting trends of a state, both nationally and at the county level, the EDG model factors in new voting data from a fresh cycle and compares, contrasts and extrapolates the information into a brand new result that should be indicative of the final result.
Some states, Michigan, Georgia, Texas etc. do not provide partisanships in their voter files, and as such their data is pulled using county level data and comparing historical final results alongside the current early voting figures.
Using this model, EDG was 100% accurate in the 2025 Gubernatorial elections and over 80% correct in the 2024 Presidential race. This year we are aiming for another 100%.